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Betting on War: 60 Minutes Investigates the Explosive Rise of Wagers on Global Conflict on June 28 2026

by · June 26, 2026

CBS’s 60 Minutes examines one of the fastest-growing and most controversial corners of online finance in “Betting on War,” an investigation into prediction markets where users wager on the outcome of real-world events. Correspondent Jon Wertheim explores how these platforms have evolved from niche forecasting tools into billion-dollar marketplaces where people can bet on elections, economic data, military operations, and international conflicts.

The investigation arrives at a pivotal moment. Federal prosecutors recently charged a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier with allegedly using classified intelligence to place profitable bets tied to a secret military operation, raising questions about whether prediction markets have created an entirely new form of insider trading.

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts based on whether a future event will occur. Rather than betting against a bookmaker, traders purchase shares that increase or decrease in value depending on the perceived likelihood of an outcome. If the event occurs, winning contracts pay out; if it does not, they expire worthless.

Supporters argue these markets aggregate the knowledge of thousands of participants, often producing surprisingly accurate forecasts for elections, sporting events, and economic indicators. Researchers have long studied prediction markets as tools for measuring collective expectations because financial incentives encourage participants to reveal what they genuinely believe will happen rather than simply expressing opinions.

In recent years, however, these markets have expanded far beyond traditional forecasting. Platforms such as Polymarket now host contracts covering military conflicts, diplomatic negotiations, political upheavals, and the fate of world leaders, turning global events into financial opportunities.

The Soldier Accused of Profiting From Classified Intelligence

The investigation centers on the indictment of U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who federal prosecutors allege used classified information to profit from prediction market wagers involving a covert military operation targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. According to the Department of Justice, Van Dyke allegedly placed approximately $33,000 in wagers shortly before the operation became public and ultimately earned more than $400,000. He has pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Prosecutors allege Van Dyke participated in planning and executing the operation before using nonpublic military intelligence to place bets that U.S. forces would enter Venezuela and that Maduro would be removed from power by the end of January 2026. Authorities say he withdrew his profits immediately after the operation was announced and later attempted to conceal his activity.

The Justice Department describes the case as a misuse of classified government information for personal financial gain. Legal experts note that while insider trading laws traditionally focus on stocks and securities, the same legal principles can apply when confidential information is used to profit in prediction markets.

Why Betting on War Raises New Ethical Questions

Unlike conventional financial markets, prediction markets increasingly allow users to speculate on armed conflicts and geopolitical crises while those events are unfolding. Contracts may ask whether a country will launch military strikes before a certain date, whether sanctions will be imposed, or whether a political leader will remain in power.

Critics argue these markets create troubling incentives because individuals with access to confidential information—including military personnel, intelligence officials, government employees, contractors, or others connected to sensitive operations—may possess information capable of influencing high-value wagers before the public learns about them.

The ethical concerns extend beyond insider trading. Some observers question whether markets built around wars, assassinations, hostage situations, or humanitarian crises encourage speculation on human suffering. Others argue they risk undermining confidence in national security by creating financial incentives tied directly to military operations.

Investigators See Signs of Suspicious Trading

The Van Dyke indictment is not the only example drawing attention. Data analysts interviewed by 60 Minutes examined prediction market activity surrounding military events and found unusually successful betting patterns that they argue warrant closer scrutiny.

According to the investigation, researchers found that long-shot military wagers succeeded at rates far above what probability models would normally predict. Another analytics firm identified linked accounts that allegedly earned millions of dollars through highly accurate wagers on military operations involving Iran, posting an extraordinary win rate that investigators say would be statistically improbable without exceptional information.

While suspicious trading alone does not prove wrongdoing, investigators say the patterns have intensified concerns that confidential information may be finding its way into markets designed to profit from geopolitical events.

A New Frontier for Regulators

Prediction markets occupy an evolving area of financial regulation. Traditional insider trading laws were developed around stocks, bonds, and corporate disclosures, but regulators increasingly believe the same principles should apply whenever confidential information is exploited for financial gain.

The Van Dyke prosecution is widely viewed as one of the first major criminal cases involving insider trading allegations tied specifically to prediction markets. Legal analysts say the outcome could establish important precedents for how future cases involving military intelligence, government secrets, and event contracts are handled.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice have both signaled growing interest in monitoring these markets as they expand. At the same time, prediction market operators argue their platforms can provide valuable forecasting tools and have pledged cooperation with law enforcement when illegal activity is suspected.

Why 60 Minutes Is Revisiting the Story

Although Sunday’s broadcast is an encore presentation, the report has been updated following recent developments that have kept prediction markets in the national spotlight. New criminal charges, ongoing scrutiny of betting tied to international conflicts, and increasing political debate over the regulation of these platforms have made the subject more relevant than ever.

As prediction markets continue expanding into areas once considered unimaginable—including military operations, diplomatic negotiations, and global conflicts—the questions explored by 60 Minutes reach beyond technology and finance. The investigation asks whether the ability to wager on war has outpaced the rules designed to prevent people from profiting from secrets that were never meant to become public.

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Ryan Gill

Ryan is a passionate follower of true crime television programs, reporting on and providing in-depth investigations on mysteries in the criminal world.

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